本文摘要：The smartphone revolutionized personal computing, creating a computer that most of us have within arm’s reach 24 hours a day. The Internet of Things promises to revolutionize computing again, by connecting and collecting data from everything we live in, drive in, eat in, sleep in and work in.智能手机使个人计算出来再次发生了革命性变化，建构了一种大多数人全天24小时触手可及的电脑。

The smartphone revolutionized personal computing, creating a computer that most of us have within arm’s reach 24 hours a day. The Internet of Things promises to revolutionize computing again, by connecting and collecting data from everything we live in, drive in, eat in, sleep in and work in.智能手机使个人计算出来再次发生了革命性变化，建构了一种大多数人全天24小时触手可及的电脑。而物联网将把我们的房屋、车辆、卧室和办公室连接起来并搜集数据，从而未来将会促成下一个计算出来革命。

In just a year or two, the number of IoT devices will outnumber the number of PCs, smartphones and laptops globally. Forecasts range from as low as 41 billion to as high as 80 billion connected devices worldwide by 2020.意味着一两年之后，在全球范围内，物联网设备的数量将多达个人电脑、智能手机和笔记本电脑的总数。根据各种有所不同的预测，到2020年，全球联网设备最少将约410亿台，最少将约800亿台。

But how will this really change how we live and work?但这将如何确实地转变我们的工作和生活方式呢？Search is dead, long live search搜索引擎已杀，搜寻不道德永存For years people have been claiming that search is dead, but we still find ourselves on Google GOOG 1.57% looking for a restaurant, searching for the best ski equipment or researching a new company. However, the promise of Io T means never having to search again. With every connected device you have, more data is collected about you, your habits, your needs and your preferences. When this data is aggregated, a complete virtual profile of you emerges. This profile will will know what you need before you do.近些年来，人们仍然在说道，搜索引擎已杀，但我们不会发现自己还是在谷歌上找饭店、去找最差的滑雪装备或研究一家新的公司。但物联网的美好前景意味著，大家以后很久不必搜寻了。你享有的所有网络设备，将自动搜集更加多关于个人信息、习惯、市场需求和爱好等方面的数据。这些数据积累一起，就不会显露出有一个原始的虚拟世界档案，进而需要提早理解你的市场需求所在。

The virtual you will be able to anticipate your needs, perform the necessary search and deliver the result you need, before you even have to ask. It will be able to adjust your thermostat before you realize you are too hot or place an order for tissues before you notice you have run out. Obviously, search still happens, but it is all done behind the scenes. If the Internet of Things becomes what we believe it can be, you’ll never need to visit the Google homepage again – except to check the daily doodle.实质上，你甚至不用主动告知，物联网就能预测你的市场需求，在适当的搜寻之后，它就不会获取你所须要的结果。在你感觉太热之前，它就能调整空调，在你注意到纸巾快用完了之前，它就能自动采购新的纸巾。似乎，搜寻还不会展开，只不过整个过程是在幕后展开。

如果物联网真为能发展成我们所预期的模样，大家就很久需要采访谷歌的主页了——除非你想要喜爱一下每天改版的涂鸦作品。It’s all about the ecosystem生态系统就是一切For this to happen, all our devices and all our data have to be connected. By 2020, the average person will have more than four Internet-connected devices, but they won’t be very useful if they exist in silos.要想要步入这一发展，我们所有的设备和数据都必需充份网络。到2020年，每个人平均值将享有多达4台物联网设备，但如果它们彼此孤立无援，就会充分发挥什么起到。

Just as operating systems have become the bases of power in the mobile ecosystem, the central platforms through which IoT devices connect will be the locus of the industry. These platforms will enable the aggregation and analysis of data from a variety of sources and will connect to mobile payments, commerce and other services so users can take action based on that information. An open platform is key to creating an IoT ecosystem that is greater than the sum of its parts.就像操作系统已沦为移动生态系统的动力基础一样，让物联网设备彼此网络的中央平台也将沦为行业基石。这些平台将搜集并分析来自各种来源的数据，并与移动支付、商务和其他服务连接，从而使用户能基于这些信息采取行动。一个对外开放的平台是创立物联网生态系统的关键，这个系统整体比其包含部分更加强劲。At the company level, building a strong ecosystem is also critical to success. The winners in IoT will be companies that build large, loyal user bases. On the product side, more users create more data, which informs algorithms and delivers better results. Shipping more units also gives companies more leverage with suppliers and makes them more attractive to partners. Just as in the social sector, network effects will matter.在公司层面，打造出一个强有力的生态系统也是顺利的关键所在。

物联网的赢家将是那些打造出可观且忠心的用户群的企业。就产品而言，更加多用户不会产生更加多数据，这不会让算法取得更加多信息并输入更佳的结果。更大的出货量也不会让企业对供应商取得更加多优势，并使自己对合作伙伴产生更大的吸引力。正如社交层面一样，网络效应总是至关重要的。

The U.S. and China will need each other中美将相互倚赖Being a successful IoT company is hard. In fact, IoT companies have to be three great companies in one:要沦为一家顺利的物联网企业绝非易事。事实上，物联网企业必需同时不具备以下这三类卓越企业的特质：1.Hardware: Building beautiful products with high-quality sensors to collect data.1、硬件企业：生产配有用作搜集数据的高品质传感器的杰出产品。

2.Platform: Collecting, processing and analyzing massive quantities of data to deliver insights.2、平台企业：搜集、处置并分析大量数据，获取有价值的洞见。3.Software: Creating best-in-class user experiences to make insights actionable.3、软件企业：建构一流的用户体验，使数据中取得的洞见可以继续执行。With such requirements, it becomes very difficult for a company to do all things well in one place. A global perspective allows the company to seek out best-in-breed solutions – wherever they may be.一家公司要想要同时作好所有这些方面十分艰难。

而如果享有全球化视野，公司就能寻找最佳解决方案——不管这种方案身在何处。We have several companies in our own investment portfolio, including Zepp and EHANG, that were founded with headquarters in both Silicon Valley and China, because they realized they needed to be in both places to succeed. In the U.S., they get experienced product designers and engineers, marketing experts and access to the high-end consumer market. In China, they have manufacturing and supply chain superiority, a breadth of engineering resources and a massive developing consumer market.在我们的投资人组中就有几家这种公司，比如Zepp和EHANG，它们在硅谷和中国都另设总部，这是因为它们告诉自己必需在这两个地方都获得成功。在美国，它们能寻找经验丰富的产品设计师、工程师、营销专家，并认识到高端消费市场。在中国，它们能取得生产及供应链优势，有所不同层次的工程师以及一个极大的发展中消费市场。

Playing in the global market also allows companies serving niche segments or use cases to still achieve massive scale. While UX and go-to-market strategies may need to adapt to different markets and segments, the back-end technologies can apply globally. We expect to see more IoT (and other tech) companies in the future throw off the limitations of being a “national” company and truly embrace being global from day one.全球化运营还能让企业服务于有所不同的小众市场，或运用案例取得规模效应。尽管客户体验和入市策略有可能必须做出调整，以适应环境有所不同市场和部门，但后末端技术却能在全球范围内应用于。我们期望今后有更加多物联网（及其他技术类）企业充满著“本土”企业的束缚，从一开始就确实按全球化方式运作。

Mobile won’t always be on mobile不只手机具备移动性The launch last week of the Apple Watch AAPL 1.24% actually foreshadows another evolution coming in IoT: blurring the lines between hardware, software, and mobile.苹果智能手表的发售，实质上伴随着物联网将要步入的新一轮演化：硬件、软件和移动终端之间的界线仍然明晰。IoT devices to date have been pieces of hardware that connect to an app on your smartphone, which allows you to interact with them. The Apple Watch signals an important shift as it combines the hardware and sensors with the software and user interface into one device. While it still requires an iPhone to connect to the Internet, it is easy to see a future “iWatch” that eliminates the need for the phone entirely.迄今为止，物联网设备仍然是一堆与智能手机应用于相连接的硬件，通过手机才能与它们对话。

而这款手表标志着一个根本性改变，即它把硬件、传感器与软件和用户界面统合到了一个设备中。尽管它仍必须通过iPhone联网，但很更容易显现出，未来的iWatch将让手机再行无容身之地。As IoT devices evolve, they will take on more “mobile” qualities and become the new home for many functions we currently rely on our smartphones to perform. In addition to making search obsolete, IoT could make the smartphone irrelevant in the near future.随着物联网设备大大升级，它们将具备更加多“移动”特性，并沦为很多目前我们要靠智能手机才能构建的功能的新平台。除了让搜寻过时，在不远处的将来，物联网还能让智能手机显得落伍。

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